CNN’s Senior Data Reporter Harry Enten has a new analysis of how the political winds are shifting when it comes to Black voters, and the news is not good for the Harris-Walz campaign.
The Gateway Pundit reported on Kamala’s challenges with a demographic that Democrats have taken for granted.
Barack Obama admitted that Black voters are not excited about Kamala Harris’s candidacy and an incredulous Oprah Winfrey shared that she was stopped at the airport by a Black man who shared that he will be voting for President Trump.
Enten’s data shows that Donald Trump is the strongest Republican among Black voters since 1960.
Harry Enten: Sometimes there’s a trend line that I never noticed before and make me go, whoa.
This is one of them.
This is the democratic margin among black men under the age of 45 in presidential elections. You go back to November of 2012, what do you see? You see Obama by 81. Clinton only won them by 63. Then we’re all the way down to Biden last time around by 53. A tremendous drop already.
Then you take a look at the average of the most recent polls, and Kamala Harris is up by only 41 That is about half the margin that Obama won them by back in November of 2012. This, I think, is when Barack Obama goes in last week when he was in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, essentially talking to young black men,he made it seem like it was a Kamala Harris-specific problem. Uh-uh. This is part of a long-standing trend of young black men moving away from the Democratic Party. Kamala Harris is just the latest to face that magnitude of younger black men going towards the Republicans.
John Berman: That was what most interesting here is the trend line and where some of the biggest drops happened or already happened in this case. How about black men overall?
Harry Enten: How about black men overall? It’s part of the same picture. We’re looking, once again, if younger black men, it looks like the worst Democratic performance since 1960, since JFK versus Richard Nixon. It’s the same thing among black men overall.
Again, part of a similar trend, but here, actually, the drop-off isn’t as dramatic. Barack Obama won him by ’85. Then you see ’71 with Clinton, ’69. Biden, basically the same thing, holding steady.
But here, again, very, very weak. Only a 54-point margin. Now, again, still winning them by a large margin, but considerably lower than what we’re used to. Certainly, considerably lower what we had during the Obama years.
The bottom line is Kamala Harris with younger black men, and then black men overall, putting in historically weak performance for a Democratic candidate.
John Berman: Is she getting any relief with black women?
Harry Enten: We’re talking about the trend line, right? And black women, look, she’s doing better with black women than she is doing among black men. But here, there isn’t a trend line almost until we get to Kamala Harris. So again, this is a margin among black women. Look, Obama won them by 93, very large margin. Clinton won them by 93, a very large margin. Biden did a little bit worse at 85.
But then you look here and you get a 71-point margin. Now, again, these are large margins. But the bottom line is, when you’re talking about the base of the Democratic Party, you would think that Kamala Harris would do very well among black women based upon history.
Of course, she would be the first black woman President, but she’s actually doing the worst for a Democratic candidate among Black women since 1960, if this holds, John.
Watch:
No matter how you splice the data, Trump seems to be the strongest Republican with Black voters since 1960. Young Black men in particular have trended right during Trump’s runs (cutting the Dem margin by 40 pts from 2012).
But Trump’s doing historically well with Black women too pic.twitter.com/FyUqqDKLjE
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 14, 2024
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