During his recent meeting with Joe Biden at the APEC summit in Peru, Xi Jinping issued a pointed warning clearly aimed at incoming President Trump.
Given Trump’s unwavering pro-American stance, he is unlikely to heed it and will almost certainly continue to prioritize the best interests of the American people over kowtowing to Beijing, setting him apart from other world leaders.
President Trump’s cabinet picks make it clear that he has no intention of compromising with China. Instead, his administration appears focused on finishing the decoupling of the U.S. economy from China, aiming to decimate the Chinese economy and derail Xi Jinping’s ambitions for a China-led international order. Trump’s nominations reflect a decidedly confrontational stance toward Beijing, with prominent China hawks taking key positions. Senator Marco Rubio, a vocal critic of China’s economic practices and one of several U.S. officials banned from entering the country, has reportedly been tapped for secretary of state. Meanwhile, Representative Mike Waltz, who has described China as the greatest threat to U.S. interests, is expected to become national security advisor.
Other key figures include Elise Stefanik, nominated as Ambassador to the United Nations, who has been critical of China’s global influence and human rights violations, and Howard Lutnick, named as commerce secretary. Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, will lead the administration’s trade and tariff agenda, oversee the Office of the United States Trade Representative, and focus on reducing reliance on Asia while bolstering the U.S. semiconductor industry. Known for advocating aggressive tariffs, including a proposed 60% duty on Chinese goods, Lutnick’s appointment underscores the administration’s hardline approach. Additionally, Robert Lighthizer, a central figure in Trump’s first term for implementing tariffs to address trade imbalances, will return as the administration’s trade czar, ensuring continuity in its tough stance on China.
Xi’s message outlined four “red lines,” the crossing of which could potentially trigger a war. These include Taiwan, democracy and human rights, China’s governance system, and its right to development. The explicit nature of Xi’s remarks was significant, marking the first time these red lines were communicated at the presidential level. His firm stance, particularly on Taiwan, highlighted the sensitivity of the issue, as China considers the island part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to ensure reunification. It is notable that Xi delivered such a stern warning during President Biden’s tenure, as it is unlikely he would have done so directly to President Trump. This moment is historic and may not recur until long after 2028—by which time China is expected to be in a weaker position.
In his first term, Trump was vehemently anti-China and strongly pro-Taiwan, earning him hero status in Taiwan. When Biden assumed office in 2020, many in Taiwan feared they had lost their staunchest supporter. However, Biden not only continued but also stepped up U.S. defense support for Taiwan. Now, with Trump’s return, some worry he may not defend Taiwan due to comments he made suggesting Taiwan and NATO should pay for U.S. protection. Yet, these fears are likely misplaced.
Trump’s demand that other countries take a more active role in their defense does not equate to abandonment. For example, Taiwan had reduced its military conscription to just three months—a move that, from Trump’s perspective as a pragmatic CEO, makes little economic sense. Why should the U.S. provide weapons and financial aid to a country whose young men are unwilling to serve and potentially die for their homeland? Like NATO, Trump is urging Taiwan to increase its defense budget as a sign that Taipei is not entirely dependent on the U.S. for its security.
Given Trump’s consistent stance against Beijing, it is improbable that he would allow Xi Jinping to take Taiwan. “Reunification,” as Xi frames it, would be his crowning achievement, even though Taiwan was never part of China. Trump is unlikely to let China realize this dream. Protecting Taiwan is not only about denying Xi his ambitions but also about the island’s immense strategic value. If China were to gain control of Taiwan, it would dominate both sides of the Taiwan Strait, threatening global shipping routes. From a purely economic standpoint, it is a sound business strategy to prevent such a scenario.
Xi Jinping’s emphasis on democracy, human rights, and China’s governance system typically garners more attention from Democratic administrations than Republican ones. However, Trump has shown he is willing to seize any opportunity to impose sanctions on China. It was during Trump’s first term that several landmark measures were introduced targeting Beijing’s human rights abuses and democratic suppression.
The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act (2019) mandated sanctions against Chinese and Hong Kong officials undermining Hong Kong’s autonomy and committing human rights violations. It also required annual assessments to determine whether Hong Kong deserved its special trade status with the U.S. In 2020, the administration imposed sanctions on Xinjiang officials, including Chen Quanguo, a Politburo member, for the persecution of Uyghur Muslims and other ethnic minorities. These measures sought to hold key figures accountable for severe human rights abuses.
Additionally, Trump expanded export controls and added numerous Chinese entities to the Entity List, restricting their access to U.S. technology. These actions specifically targeted companies involved in human rights violations and those posing national security threats.
Trump’s willingness to act decisively against Beijing suggests he will continue to leverage these issues to maintain pressure on China.
As for the final red line—China’s right to economic development—Trump has stated that he expects all world leaders to act in the best interests of their own people. He has made it clear that while China is free to pursue its development, it must not come at the expense of U.S. interests or American taxpayers.
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