This year, under President Trump and Secretary Hegseth, the U.S. Army hit its annual recruiting goal, surpassing targets months ahead of schedule. This marks a remarkable turnaround from the recruitment crisis under President Biden. However, while these gains are significant for meeting peacetime force levels, they obscure a deeper and more alarming reality: in the event of a major war or mass conscription, the vast majority of America’s youth are physically or medically unfit for military service.
A Pentagon man-power-availability study determined that only 23 percent of Americans aged 17 to 24 qualify for military service without a waiver, down from 30 percent just a decade ago. While the military currently meets its recruitment goals through aggressive outreach, expanded waivers, and by targeting a shrinking pool of eligible youth, this model would not be sustainable in the event of a major conflict, such as a war with China.
The numbers paint a sobering picture of America’s youth. A Pentagon study shows that 77% of young Americans would not qualify for military service without a waiver due to being overweight, using drugs, or having mental and physical health problems. When looking at disqualifications based on a single factor, the most common reasons are obesity (11%), drug and alcohol abuse (8%), and medical or physical health issues (7%). In fiscal year 2023, the services disqualified 52,000 applicants from active duty due to obesity alone. However, the majority, 44%, were disqualified for multiple reasons.
The mental health crisis among America’s youth has become a significant barrier to military service. About 4% of eligible applicants would be ruled out for psychological and developmental diagnoses, such as autism, depression, or attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, affecting thousands of potential recruits annually. From 2015 to 2019, mental health conditions disqualified about 50,000 people from joining the military, with 39% of applicants requesting a waiver after being found medically unfit. The military has been forced to adapt, with ADHD making up 60% of enlistments through a new pilot program that relaxes previous restrictions.
The prescription drug dependency among youth has forced policy changes. The Pentagon has dropped 51 disqualifying conditions as part of its recruiting push, with more than 6,000 people enlisting through relaxed requirements between 2022 and 2024.
Defense Department data from 2020 shows that 8% of Americans between the ages of 17-24 are disqualified from military service due to drug abuse. The widespread legalization of marijuana has complicated military recruitment, as roughly one-third of American 18-year-olds say they have used marijuana at least once in the past year. The military has been forced to adapt its approach to marijuana.
The Navy is no longer immediately kicking out recruits who arrive at boot camp with detectable amounts of marijuana in their system, and the House has proposed legislation that would prohibit the military from testing recruits for cannabis as a condition for enlisting.
Faced with recruitment shortfalls, the military has implemented concerning policy changes. Medical professionals disqualified more than one-third of applicants during their initial exam, but that figure fell to about one in five after service medical waivers were applied. The Pentagon has lowered fitness standards to keep overweight troops in the ranks and increased the use of body composition waivers to bring overweight recruits into the military.
Adding to these challenges is the rapid growth in LGBTQ+ identification among America’s youth. Gallup polling shows that 9.3% of U.S. adults now identify as LGBTQ+—nearly triple the 3.5% rate in 2012. More significantly, over 20% of Generation Z adults (those born between 1997-2006) identify as LGBTQ+, compared to just 1.8% among the oldest Americans.
This demographic shift has direct military implications. Under current Pentagon policy implemented in 2025, service members diagnosed with gender dysphoria are being processed for separation from the military. Pentagon officials have stated that “the medical, surgical, and mental health constraints on individuals who have a current diagnosis or history of, or exhibit symptoms consistent with, gender dysphoria are incompatible with the high mental and physical standards necessary for military service.”
As of December 2024, there were 4,240 troops diagnosed with gender dysphoria across all services, with approximately 1,000 choosing voluntary separation. The Pentagon has halted all new hormone treatments and surgical procedures for transgender troops, citing deployment and readiness concerns. Between 2015 and 2024, the Defense Department spent $52 million treating service members with gender dysphoria, with roughly 1,000 receiving some type of surgery during that timeframe.
Another issue is that many recruits are now struggling to score well on the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB), the military’s entrance exam. School closures and remote learning during COVID led to a broad decline in educational performance and standards. As a result, ASVAB scores have dropped significantly, by as much as 9 percent.
A further issue is the growing disconnect between servicemembers and civilian society. Fewer than 1% of Americans currently serve in the military, and the number of living veterans is projected to decline by up to 34% over the next 25 years. During World War II, 16% of Americans served, creating a strong cultural connection to the armed forces. Today, that connection is weakening: only 13% of young adults surveyed by the Pentagon in the target recruiting age range had a parent who served, down from about 40% in 1995.
As a result, fewer young people are inclined to serve. A 2024 survey found that 87% of individuals aged 16–21 said they were “probably not” or “definitely not” considering enlistment. Only 9% expressed any propensity to serve, the lowest figure in 15 years, and just 1% were both eligible and open to having a conversation with the military about joining.
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